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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

But this year's race is distinctly different. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners falling away and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still